July rally in crude markets in play as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise and storms develop – resistance at $88 and $93.
Natural Gas Rally Pauses as Golden Pass LNG construction is delayed.
Minimal Monetary Relief expected – lock in long term rates
Geopolitical Tensions and High Debt Levels continue to flame inflationary pressures.
Volatility to create Opportunities
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JGlobal Growth Dependent upon China and India
Global Growth continues to slow as predicted in January’s Year of the Dragon driven by developed nations. While weak economic growth will limit investments continue to be diverted to clear energy. The IEA estimates $2 trillion to be invested in clean energy technologies versus $570 billion to be invested in upstream oil and gas which provides over 80% of global primary energy.
While economic growth is slowing, economic growth in China and India remain strong. Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 was supported by new petrochemical manufacturing which are unlikely to repeat. Today we review economic growth projections – Stagflation – slow growth constrained by high debt levels, rising interest rates both contributing to higher inflation. Growing wars (Ukraine and Middle East) continue to add strain to supply chains further contributing to inflation. Limited investment in traditional fossil fuels will limit supply growth as investment flows to “clean energies.” Next time we will look at oil supply and demand dynamics.
